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Weekly Syria Tracking 03: from 31/3 till 5/4 2019
We select the hottest topics monitoring 35 media in Syria. Media either pro and against the regime as well as pro and against the oppositions.
Then we comment them.
A- The Hot Events:
- Academic research on the “emergence of the Baath party”
- America has continued to introduce military and logistical equipment to the East Euphrates! … The meeting of Pompeo Javishoglu shows “safe”
- Assad to Arreaza: What is going on in Venezuela is similar to what happened in Syria
- Daraa: A “Shabab” pause to celebrate the founding of the party
- Dozens of people killed and wounded by heavy shelling of the regime forces on Idlib
- Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham Targets the Tiger Forces
- Idleb Militants Fear Decline in Ankara’s Support
- Iran’s Presence on Syrian Coast Angers Russia
- Khamis is preparing Jaramana with a complete matrix of the city’s requirements and directed to solve the problems of the demobilized from military service
- Muallem: Syria’s Right in Occupied Golan Is Firm
- Prime Minister: I follow the files of corruption and raised the transfer of elements of customs
- Redesigning Saadalah Al-Jabri Square in Aleppo
- Regime Arrests Mother and Her Four Daughters Over Phone Call With Rebel Relative
- Russia Hands Over Remains of Israeli Soldier
- STATELESS IN EXILE, UNRECOGNIZED AT HOME: BARRIERS TO REGISTERING SYRIAN NEWBORNS IN LEBANON
- Syria Has No Clue About the Remains of an Israeli Soldier
- Syrian Coalition Demands Regime Accountability for Chemical Attack on Khan Sheikhoun
- Taameh: The Regime Cannot Invade the Northern Areas
- The taxpayers rose from 25 thousand to 400 thousand ..
- Turkey has failed to implement “demilitarized” items in 202 days … Attacks on civilians in the northern Hama countryside and the army are
B -The Comment:
1) Problems with Iran and Russia
The regime must justify with Iran that Russia is in Syria and with Russia that Iran is in Syria.
Then the focus on Ankara not able to demilitarize an area controlled since 202 days.
And then Damscus informs new US troops in Syria as well as about the Kurds that act against the civil population.
All propaganda to find a role between Teheran and Moscow, (see 4)
2) The Problems between Teheran and Moscow …
Tehran owns 5.000 hectars near the Russian bases in Tartus and Latakia.
An area where Iran is investing either to build up businesses and to populate with pro-Iran Shiias.
Something that Moscow doesn’t like.
We must always remember that not all Syrian Shiias want the Iranian control.
It is a matter of soft power and Teheran is perceived as too fundamentalist with a way of life that the Syrians not want.
The Russians are having more success in term of soft power. They use Chechen forces as Sunni Muslim Military Police that is respected both by Sunnis and Shiias.
And the Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov is an important asset of the Russian diplomacy in the region. For example his last trip in Saudi Arabia was a success.
3) The Iranian problems
Teheran is working hard to create The Iranian Corridors.
In order to create The Iran-Med Corridor Teheran must control, (or at least to be a key player), Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.
In south Iraq, (the Shiia dominant region of the country), there are problems because the local population demands more to have a better quality of life.
In Syria a growing number of Shiias not like the Iranian fundamentalism and the related lifestyle that the Iranians want to impose.
In Lebanon we have that: “STATELESS IN EXILE, UNRECOGNIZED AT HOME: BARRIERS TO REGISTERING SYRIAN NEWBORNS IN LEBANON”.
Till 2006 also the Sunnis in Lebanon were supporting Hezbollah because of the fight against Israel but things has been starting to change when the Lebanese Army them started to replace them in the south of the country.
Sunnis since that moment did not see any reason for an armed militias because the army could defend the border.
Things started to deteriorate and growing the suspect that Hezbollah wanted to control the country.
Then the clash in the 2008 between Hezbollah and Sunnis.
Year after year the division has been growing.
Today Hezbollah wants barriers to registering Syrian newborns in Lebanon “just and simply” to alter the demography.
It is a form of ethnic cleansing against the Sunnis either in Lebanon and in Syria.
In Lebanon because till the refugees are in the country the less Sunnis are register as citizen the less power they have.
In Syria, once they back home, for the same reason. The less Sunnis are recognized as Sunnis the more the Alawite Shiias can benefit.
This is pure ethnic cleansing against the Arab Sunnis.
From this event we can draw the following lesson: to contain Iran we must focus on Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon.
4) The regime wants to empower its image
The focus on the Baath old glory.
The announcement that the regime is so effective that ” taxpayers rose from 25 thousand to 400 thousand”.
And that fights against corruption.
All is to create an image of strenght inside a country that is a Transactional State, as told in our first episode.
Assad is weak and must find his place between Russians, Iranians, Profiteers, (the new brokers of power), and Opposition.
And he needs a lot more than to glorify the Baath ….
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